China’s Balloon Could Be America’s Awakening

If Beijing meant for its spy balloon to float across the United States undetected, then it could not have failed more spectacularly. The airship, which may have never been intended to fly so low or even take the course it did, looked less like a distant satellite and more like the Goodyear Blimp. And so while no one could have predicted it, China’s balloon may well spur America’s awakening.

The episode could hardly have been better designed to prompt U.S. concerns. Start by understanding that, surrounded by two oceans and friendly neighbors, Americans are exquisitely sensitive to physical violations of their sovereignty. National security threats tend to emerge “over there”—in Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iraq, the Balkans, and the Western Pacific. Although they might feel secondary effects—rising gas prices, a higher grocery bill, or a family member in the military—these kinds of threats are intangible for most Americans most of the time. Beijing may fly spy satellites over the United States, conduct regular cyberattacks, cover up the origins of a global pandemic, and infiltrate American infrastructure, but the effects (though real) are largely unseen.

So imagine you could put in the air a tangible, sensational manifestation of Beijing’s menace—an enormous spy balloon, for instance. Watch the threat linger for several days over the heartland, drifting so low it can even be seen from the ground. Stir in fervor among Americans who suddenly wish to take matters into their own hands, even attempting to shoot into the air. Throw in a dash of denial from Beijing and a weak claim that the airship is nothing more than a weather balloon blown off course. Follow it almost immediately, and most inconveniently for China, with the appearance of another errant meteorological airship. End it all with an F-22 firing a missile into the spy balloon, puncturing the notion that U.S.-China friction will be confined to Asia rather than the homeland.

As it turns out, Washington couldn’t carry off such an audacious campaign to change American hearts and minds—but Beijing could. The stirring, rather than any intelligence it gathered or diplomatic friction it produced, will be the lasting effect of this strange stunt.

The notion that the United States is still asleep on China might seem odd to policymakers. China is, after all, the stated top priority of U.S. foreign policy. It is the U.S. military’s pacing threat. Increasingly, it is the explicit focus of government leaders who consistently make the public case.

FBI Director Christopher Wray, for instance, has said, “The Chinese government’s disregard for global leadership norms, ruthless hunger for economic superiority, and desire to influence American politics make it a threat to U.S. national security.” U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo warns that “China today poses a set of growing challenges to our national security. That is a fact. It’s deploying its military in ways that undermine the security of our allies and our partners and the free flow of global trade.” The U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has labeled China as “the only competitor out there with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, a power to do so.” The only congressional committee focused on a single country is, unsurprisingly, dedicated to competition with China.

For the American public, however, it’s a different story. In a list of threats, a November 2022 survey found China ranked behind domestic political divisions, cyberattacks, rising authoritarianism, surveillance technology, terrorism, Russia, biological attacks, and global pandemics. Another found the majority of Americans worried about Chinese territorial ambitions, but only a third of people surveyed believe the United States should lead an international response to China’s rise. Other polls show China ranking higher than other national security issues and higher than in previous years. But it is still not the top priority.

The perception of a China threat has grown significantly in recent years, but a gap between the public and Washington remains. Rising public concern has made some moves politically possible—like spending more on defense, pursuing a new industrial policy, and imposing export controls on high-end semiconductors. But that momentum has been insufficient to get the harder things done: an affirmative trade policy in Asia, a strategic approach to immigration, and a military transformation to prepare for a possible clash in the Pacific.

This reality has led political leaders and policymakers to bring the message home. By better informing the American people about the China challenge, the thinking goes, and by preparing them for a long period of competition against a major power, the United States can ensure the political support necessary to succeed. Those efforts, however, have thus far met limited success.

The balloon may just have made the difference. It turns out that a vivid representation of Chinese intentions focuses minds to a far greater degree than inveighing against threats to the liberal international order or lamenting land reclamation in the South China Sea. Will even greater political support now exist for a highly competitive approach to China? It’s hard to say. On the one hand, the focus may not last. On the other hand, a fine line exists between motivation to compete and overreaction to perceived threats. American foreign policy is replete with examples on both sides of that ledger. Prudence and resolve, not panic and bravado, should be the watchwords.

But this odd event is precisely the kind that could prompt a shift in wider American perceptions of the ­­­salience of the China challenge. At the end of the day, it was just a balloon—unmanned and probably unsuccessful in its mission. But it signifies something greater. Beijing’s blunder may well represent—forgive the expression—a great-power trial balloon. And it may even spur a broad American awakening.